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Consumers expect higher and longer inflation than the government reports

Consumers are expecting longer and much higher inflation than government reports suggest. PYMNTS ‘ national survey with 13,250 U.S. consumers suggests it will take until June 2024 for inflation to come down to the Fed 2 percent target.

Consumers are predicting financial expectations much better than the experts. The experts with lots of data and excel sheets aren’t able to predict the exact expected outcomes, whereas common consumers get it right with their bills and payments.

According to the reports, the intervals of inflation have wavered from the consumer’s perspective, whereas the government expected moderated inflation. It represents the difference between the reports and the ground reality prices going on in the markets. This reflects that the consumers have a better grasp of inflation than the experts.

We can draw the same conclusion from the past events of COVID-19. The consumers correctly predicted the interval of even a one-lifetime calamity. In March 2020, when the epidemiologists predicted the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic being only two months, a US consumer suggested that it would not return to normal until fall 2020.

PYMNTS reported in May the government epidemiologists extended the duration to fall, whereas the consumer predicted the dates of February 2021. And finally, in December, the experts timed the end of the pandemic to march 2021, and the consumers predicted it to be at the end of 2021.

All of the time, consumers were correct and far more precise than the experts in the field. Consumers interact with physical resources in their daily life. The grocery they buy and the bills they pay give them much more sense of the situation than any expert sitting in their office.

Again for a one-lifetime event like 40-year high inflation, consumers are a safe bet to determine its future. The government reported inflation in various sectors far lower than the consumer reported. Consumers expect this all-time high inflation to go down by the fall of 2024.

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