Brazil’s instant payment system Pix is poised to surpass credit cards as the dominant payment method in the country’s online purchase market as early as next year, according to a recent study by Brazilian payments firm Ebanx. The findings, based on data from research firm PCMI, suggest that Pix will hold a 44% share of the online payment market by the end of 2025, outpacing credit cards, which are projected to capture 41% of the market.
Launched by Brazil’s central bank in late 2020, Pix has rapidly gained popularity due to its free and instant transaction capabilities. Its growth has been so pronounced that a prior study, released earlier this year, had anticipated Pix would nearly match credit card usage only by the end of 2026. The accelerated timeline reflects Pix’s increasing prominence and the shifting dynamics in Brazil’s digital payments landscape.
Juliana Etcheverry, Ebanx’s director of country growth for Latin America, attributed Pix’s rapid adoption to its role in financial inclusion. By late 2022, Pix had integrated approximately 71.5 million Brazilians into the financial system. This broad adoption has encouraged more merchants to adopt the system, creating a “virtuous cycle” that fuels its growth. “It’s a chicken-and-egg scenario,” Etcheverry noted, highlighting how increased usage drives further adoption among businesses.
Pix’s expansion is evident across various sectors, including retail and travel, contributing to its anticipated dominance. The central bank is also set to introduce new Pix features in the coming years, such as installment payments, which could further challenge credit cards by offering more flexible payment options.
Despite Pix’s impressive rise, Etcheverry does not foresee an outright replacement of credit cards. “The cards industry is also investing in new protocols and features to maintain its market presence,” she said. The outlook for credit cards remains relatively stable, with projections indicating a slight decline from their 49% share of the e-commerce market in 2023.
On a related note, the central bank reported that Pix reached a new milestone last Friday, processing 227.4 million transactions in a single day, underscoring the system’s growing influence in Brazil’s financial ecosystem. This is similar to India’s UPI which is also an instant payment system and it now supports credit cards as well.